Disclaimer: This analysis focuses on key contenders and does not cover every athlete on the Ironman 70.3 World Championship start line.
Taylor Knibb comes into Marbella as the favourite on paper, having established herself as the most dominant middle-distance triathlete in recent years with three consecutive 70.3 world titles (2022, 2023, 2024) and the inaugural T100 title. However, three weeks ago in Kona, she was forced to DNF just two miles from the finish due to extreme heat stress. She was only medically cleared to race at the 70.3 World Championship on Friday, October 31 – just eight days before the start.
While Knibb remains the pre-race favourite, here are some considerations for how the race might unfold and what it could take for top contenders to claim victory along Marbella’s scenic yet demanding coastline.
Swim
Power swimmers like Lucy Charles-Barclay and Jess Learmonth are expected to drive a fast pace from the start. In Kona, Lucy exited the water with a lead of over 90 seconds, leaving the rest of the field behind. However, particularly over the T100 distance, it’s been common for swimmers like Charles-Barclay and Learmonth to lead with a small pack in tow.
This front pack could include athletes such as Georgia Taylor-Brown, a dominant short-course star who has recently transitioned to the middle distance. While Taylor-Brown has demonstrated strong swim and bike performances, however, she has yet to deliver a complete middle-distance race without a fade on the run. Knibb’s swim can also be variable, and whether or not she stays with the front pack will determine what it will take for her on the bike course – to catch up and/or potentially break away.
Other contenders who are unlikely to be in the front pack for the swim, but whose swim splits will still play a key role in shaping the race, are Kat Matthews and Solveig Lovseth. Matthews, the runner-up to Knibb in 2023 and 2024, is hungry for her first World Championship title. Lovseth, meanwhile, is a relative newcomer to the 70.3 distance, but can no longer be overlooked after her recent Kona victory.
Bike
The bike leg will likely be Knibb’s biggest opportunity to assert control. Widely regarded as the strongest cyclist in the field, she will need to exit T2 with a gap on her competitors if she hopes to secure a fourth consecutive 70.3 world title. Marbella’s hilly profile suits riders who can sustain high power, making it an ideal course for Knibb, but she is far from the only strong cyclist in contention.
Charles-Barclay, Matthews, Lovseth, Taylor-Brown, and Learmonth all bring exceptional cycling abilities to the table. The key question is who among them can run faster than Knibb – a shortlist that likely includes Charles-Barclay, Matthews, and Lovseth.
In Kona, Matthews ran the fastest of anyone, setting a new run course record and showcasing the remarkable form she currently carries. But all three – Charles-Barclay, Matthews, and Lovseth – have proven capable of outrunning Knibb if they arrive in T2 alongside her, or close enough to challenge her over the final 21.1 kilometres.
So what kind of buffer might Knibb need? History offers some clues. In both 2023 and 2024, Knibb began the run more than five minutes ahead of Matthews, who still managed to close the gap to just over a minute last year. In contrast, at the 2024 Dubai T100 Final, Knibb left T2 with “only” a 2:51 lead over Ash Gentle – a gap many expected Gentle to erase, but she couldn’t. The result in Dubai underscores how factors earlier in the race, particularly bike effort, can shape what’s left in the legs for the run, especially on a demanding course like Marbella’s. (Notably, Gentle is typically exceptional in hot conditions, suggesting that bike intensity, rather than heat alone, may have contributed to her late-race struggles in Dubai.)
Run
With such a deep and talented field, the closing half marathon will be where this championship is likely won or lost. But as several athletes noted during the pro panel, success won’t just come down to pure run speed – it will hinge on who manages their effort best across the day.
Our Triathlon Magazine pick for the win is Knibb, based on her four consecutive middle-distance world titles and her comment during the pro panel that she wouldn’t have traveled to Marbella post-Kona if she didn’t believe in her ability to defend her title. Our picks to round out the podium are Matthews and Charles-Barclay – both of whom are proven over the distance and arrive in exceptional form (Charles-Barclay with her two recent T100 wins, and Matthews with her record-setting run in Kona and history of runner-up finishes at the 70.3 Worlds).
As Lovseth demonstrated in Kona, however, surprises are always possible, making Marbella’s finale one of the most intriguing and anticipated races of the season.
Follow @triathlonmagazine for race-day updates, results, and all the drama as it unfolds in Marbella.
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