What Is the Best Pacing Strategy for Triathlon? (Spoiler: It’s Not % FTP)
The best pacing strategy is built around the demands of the entire race.
Kevin Mackinnon
One of the most important things I’ve learned after 16 years in triathlon is that the swim, bike, and run aren’t three separate disciplines. Rather, triathlon is one sport, and race-day pacing and execution need to be thought of as such.
The strategy (and fatigue cost) of each discipline carries over to the next, and not in an insignificant way… but this doesn’t need to be viewed as a problem. In many ways, it’s an opportunity. Pace and distribute your effort more effectively than those around you, and you can improve your race-day performance independent of additional fitness gains.
Here are some of my top recommendations for those looking to hone race-day pacing and execution.
The Swim
When it comes to the swim, tactically, this is likely not the place to “burn your matches,” so to speak.
Why? Because water is roughly 900 times denser than air, and the effort required to swim faster comes at an exponentially higher energetic cost. Unless you’re racing at the pointy end or as a professional, it’s unlikely to be worth digging too deep during the swim. Instead, an efficient stroke and conserving energy for later (i.e., reducing metabolic fatigue) can be a much better strategy.
What about weaker swimmers who can’t even picture the swim without imagining it costing an enormous amount of energy? If you’ve got a handful of weeks before race day, it may be worth strategically increasing your swim volume during the final phase of your build.
The reason is two-fold. More time in the water can help cement technical improvements – many swimmers report a better “feel for the water” and a smoother stroke when swimming more frequently. At the same time, improved swim fitness can reduce the overall cost of the swim leg. In other words, the goal isn’t necessarily to become faster before race day; it’s to make the swim less expensive so it doesn’t compromise the other 90% of your race. In long-course triathlon, that’s where the majority of the race is ultimately decided.
There’s an old saying in triathlon: you don’t win the race in the swim, but you can lose it there. While the swim is becoming increasingly decisive in professional racing, that principle still largely holds true for age-group athletes. The goal is to exit the water having swum well, but still feeling like you have plenty left for the bike and run.
Key Takeaway: For the majority of age-group athletes, the swim is not the make-or-break portion of your race. Swim smoothly and efficiently, but for the most part, keep your matches tucked away (unless there’s a worthwhile tactical move, such as bridging to a faster pack where you can then draft and conserve energy).

The Bike
The bike represents the longest portion of your day, and thus execution and pacing are key. Most importantly, remember that the bike isn’t just about producing the fastest bike split possible – it’s about setting yourself up to run well afterward.
There are many articles that recommend pacing the bike using a fixed percentage of FTP, often citing roughly 90% of FTP for the 70.3 and 80% for the full Ironman for pros, with slightly lower percentages for age-group athletes.
While FTP is undoubtedly a valuable metric, our understanding of endurance physiology, and the true limiters of long-course performance, has evolved considerably. I recently attended an intensive endurance physiology camp in Park City, Utah, where, among other things, we explored why FTP (typically estimated from a 20-minute test) captures only part of what determines long-course performance.
For instance, are you someone who produces high power over shorter durations but fades over several hours? Or are you a “diesel engine” who can maintain a high percentage of your threshold all day?
FTP alone doesn’t tell us the physiological characteristics behind that number. It doesn’t distinguish the relative glycolytic and aerobic contributions used to produce it, nor does it capture durability (your ability to maintain performance as fatigue accumulates over time). As a result, I think percentage-based pacing recommendations are often treated as more universal than they really are.
Unless you’ve completed extensive metabolic testing and know how to translate those results into race-day pacing (something most of us haven’t invested in), I believe one of your greatest strengths on race day is understanding yourself as a rider and learning to pace by feel.
That doesn’t mean ignoring your power meter. I strongly believe in using power ceilings to keep your effort under control and prevent costly surges on climbs or other challenging sections of the course. But beyond those guardrails, I encourage the athletes I coach to race by feel while keeping the whole race in mind. Remember: the finish line is not the end of the bike, it’s the end of the run, where athletes who have paced well have the opportunity to truly shine.
Key Takeaway: Beyond using power to keep your effort under control (for example, on climbs or more demanding sections of the course), I believe the bike is best raced primarily by feel while considering the demands of the entire race. Remember: the bike isn’t the finish line. It’s what delivers you to the start of the run.

The Run
Last but certainly not least, the run. If you’ve paced well, this can become your opportunity to start passing athletes who gave too much too soon.
One of the biggest time losses in triathlon occurs when a run deteriorates into a shuffle or a walk. Conversely, holding together a strong run is one of the most effective ways to produce a finishing time you’re proud of.
Again, while many athletes hope for a specific pace target, I also believe in running primarily by feel. By the time you begin the run, you’ve already accumulated roughly 3+ hours of racing in a 70.3 and over twice that in a full Ironman. As a result, the physiological state in which athletes arrive at the run can vary enormously.
Requiring yourself to run a pre-conceived pace is therefore likely to either underestimate or overestimate what you’re capable of on the day. Instead, I encourage athletes to get to know their body in training – learning to recognize cues such as breathing, perceived exertion (RPE), and what truly sustainable effort feels like.
While this can prevent you from running too hard and fading before the finish, it can work the other way around as well. Just two weeks ago at Challenge Roth, Alanis Siffert rode and ran her way to a historic victory after covering both her power meter and her watch. After the race, she explained that the numbers she was producing would have looked intimidating – even impossible – but she trusted what her body was telling her on the day.
Many of us want technology to give us the answers. But sometimes the best feedback comes from within.
Complete metabolic testing can certainly provide valuable insight into what may be physiologically possible, but absent that, trust your body. Listen to the feedback it’s giving you in real time, adjust accordingly, and aim to reach the finish line knowing you’ve given everything you had.
Key Takeaway: You want to empty the tank by the finish line – but not before. Trust your training, but also trust your body’s ability to recognize the fine line between sustainable effort and going just a little too hard.
