Inside the Qatar T100 Finale: Who’s Still in the Hunt and What Will It Take to Win

T100 has released the official start lists for both the men’s and women’s races at the Qatar T100 Triathlon World Championship Final, taking place December 12th. Two notable contracted athletes are quietly absent: 2024 champion Taylor Knibb and Sam Long. The field will feature 26 women and 20 men, several of whom still have a legitimate shot at the overall series title depending on how the race in Qatar unfolds.

The event will also see the return of two professional athletes, Lucy Byram and Imogen Simmonds. Byram tragically lost her partner, Samuel O’Shea, to a cycling accident this October, and Qatar will be her first T100 appearance since the French Riviera. Simmonds, recently cleared of doping allegations, has been authorized to return to competition with no sanctions, setting the stage for an emotional and highly anticipated comeback.

Men’s Race Preview: Can Anyone Beat Wilde?

On the men’s side, Hayden Wilde remains the benchmark. He has won all five T100 races in which he completed the correct distance (Dubai excluded, where he and two others unintentionally added an extra 8km on the bike). Wilde arrives in Qatar as the undisputed favourite, sitting atop the standings with a perfect regular-season score of 140 points. But there are a few contenders who could threaten his streak.

Chief among them is the newly-crowned 70.3 World Champion, Jele Geens, who enters Qatar ranked second with 122 points. Wilde’s hallmark is his ability to erase his swim deficit early on the bike, then ride and run away from the field. But Geens is the one athlete who has repeatedly shown he can match – and even surpass – Wilde on the run. If Geens can start the 18km within striking distance, he has a real chance to challenge for the win.

Geens and Wilde have faced each other four times this season. Wilde has taken every head-to-head, but Geens outran him in both London and the French Riviera. And with Geens carrying huge momentum after out-sprinting Kristian Blummenfelt by three seconds to win the 70.3 World Championship in Marbella, he should not be discounted. For Geens to win the overall series, however, he must win in Qatar, and Wilde must finish off the podium (fourth or lower).

Another steady presence on the T100 podium has been Mika Noodt, who has earned three silver medals and two bronze medals this season. While beating Wilde outright remains a tall order, Noodt has shown he can stay close. In Wollongong, he finished only 35 seconds back, underscoring both his consistency and his ability to stay engaged at the front of the race.

Honourable Mention: Marten Van Riel’s course error in Dubai (where he overbiked by 8km alongside Wilde and Mathis Margirier) has effectively taken him out of the running for the overall series podium. But he arrives in Qatar as the defending T100 champion, and his form suggests he could play spoiler. In Dubai, he was swimming and biking aggressively at the front before the mistake occurred. While he may be out of contention for the series title, Van Riel remains a genuine podium threat – and, on the right day, a legitimate contender for the win. One to watch.

Women’s Race Preview: Waugh vs Derron vs Charles-Barclay

On the women’s side, three athletes remain firmly in the hunt for the overall T100 crown: Kate Waugh, Julie Derron, and Lucy Charles-Barclay. They currently occupy first, second, and third in the series standings with 128, 122, and 119 points respectively, setting up a true winner-takes-all scenario in Qatar.

While Waugh leads the standings, Derron is fresh off a dominant victory in Dubai, where she put more than three minutes (3:13) into Waugh. Charles-Barclay arrives with back-to-back T100 wins (London and Spain) and a newly minted 70.3 world title in Marbella. All three athletes have shown the form required to win in Qatar – and the series title will go to whoever executes best on the day.

Charles-Barclay’s weapon is her front-pack swim, and history suggests she will try to create early separation. She opened an over 90-second gap in Kona and a 47-second lead in Marbella, swimming solo off the front in both races and even distancing fellow powerhouse Jess Learmonth. If she breaks away again in Qatar, the dynamic will hinge on Waugh and Derron: can they limit the damage and close the gap across the bike and run?

Given how tight the standings are, the math is simple: whichever of these three wins in Qatar will also win the overall series. The margins have never been closer, and this women’s finale is poised to deliver one of the most suspenseful races of the season.

Here’s a look at the overall T100 series payouts (with any ties decided by finishing position in Qatar).

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