The Ironman 70.3 World Championship race week has arrived, and the excitement surrounding it is palpable. Adding to the fun for fans, there are two places you can place your bets – both on the overall win and podium, as well as the best performances in each discipline: Pro Tri News and Triathlon Lab.

To help you make your picks, and doubling as a pre-race preview, we undertook a comprehensive AI analysis of the top contenders. (We’ll give you our own thoughts after sharing what AI found.)

What did we do? We spent hours inputting the full results history from the past year of racing into a workbook, considering strength of field, performance in each discipline, course profile, and gaps from the front – both overall and within each discipline, again adjusted for strength of field. Every race was included in the analysis, with DNFs counting only for the disciplines completed and otherwise contributing to a slightly higher-risk or less-consistent index for the athlete. Consistency of performances was also considered.

It took several hours across a handful of days to input all the data and build in the ability to account for the variables of interest, all with the aim of seeing who the data supported as the top bets this coming weekend. Here’s the analysis for the men’s race (with the women’s analysis coming soon!).

What We Think

In terms of our own picks, we’d reverse the order of the top two, Kristian Blummenfelt and Hayden Wilde, simply because we don’t know whether Wilde is fully recovered from the extended period of illness that has recently affected him.

Speaking of Wilde, both T100 and 70.3 results were included in our analysis due to the similarity between the two race formats, with 70.3 results receiving slightly greater weight. When analyzing each discipline, we also gave greater weight to courses with profiles more similar to Nice (namely an ocean swim, very hilly bike, and flat run).

We would also heighten the emphasis on Lasse Nygaard Priester as a dark horse for the podium. We’ve said this before and, although he’s largely flown under the radar, our eyes will for sure be on him.

Last but certainly not least: Marten Van Riel. While AI didn’t bet on him, we would not be the least bit surprised to see this man on the podium. In fact, he’s one of our favourites. He also currently leads the Pro Series standings when considering only the three races that count toward an athlete’s score ahead of the championship races (two full-distance races and one 70.3), with Nice and Kona still to come and carrying the greatest opportunity for points.

Who is your money on? Place your bets!