Okay, we did it for the men. Now it’s time for the women.

Who does AI have on the podium in tomorrow’s women’s Ironman 70.3 World Championship? We put a year’s worth of race results through our model to find out. Then we’ll weigh in with our own thoughts, and tell you who we’re putting our money on.

A reminder that there are two places you can place your bets: Pro Tri News and Triathlon Lab.

And, quickly, a reminder of our methodology. If you’ve already read the men’s article, feel free to skip ahead.

Methodology: We spent hours inputting the athletes’ complete results history from the past year of racing into a workbook, accounting for strength of field, performance in each discipline, course profile, and gaps to the front – both overall and within each discipline, again adjusted for strength of field.

Every race was included in the analysis. DNFs counted for the disciplines an athlete completed, while also contributing to a slightly higher risk or lower consistency rating. Consistency across performances was factored in as well.

We built the model to account for each of these variables, with additional weighting for performances on courses most relevant to Nice, all with one goal: to see who the data supports as the strongest bets for tomorrow’s world championship.

Here’s what it found.

What We Think

We agree with the model’s top three contenders: Julie Derron, Kat Matthews, and Taylor Knibb – although we wouldn’t necessarily put them in that order. All three have a genuine shot at the win, but our money is on Knibb, with Derron the athlete we see as most likely to disrupt Knibb’s historical 70.3 World Championship dominance and take the crown.

Why Knibb? For one simple reason: her remarkable consistency at this championship. She finished third in 2021 before winning three straight titles in 2022, 2023, and 2024, then took silver in 2025 despite suboptimal preparation following heat illness in Kona. She has shown, with striking repeatability, that she can deliver at this race.

But there’s an important caveat when comparing her World Championship record with Derron’s: Derron simply hasn’t had the same opportunities at this race. She finished fifth in Taupō in 2024, but otherwise hasn’t been a regular presence at the 70.3 World Championship.

Over the comparable T100 distance, meanwhile, Derron and Knibb have each beaten the other. That leads us to believe we could see a similarly tight battle here.

Matthews is absolutely in our podium picks as well. With five World Championship podiums to her name, she has proven time and again that she can deliver on the biggest stage (and we’d love to see her finally snag that breakthrough top step!).

Løvseth is never one to rule out, and her outwardly humble demeanour at the pro press conference shouldn’t be mistaken for a reason to overlook her. She’s not currently in our podium picks, given the incredible strength of this field and her recent illness, but it’s worth remembering that she arrived in Kona as something of a dark horse with a similarly understated assessment of her own chances – and we all know how that turned out.

The other result from the model that surprised us was Canadian Paula Findlay ranking ahead of Knibb on the bike and being projected fourth overall. (And we would absolutely love to see that for Findlay!) With that said, this is one place where we’re willing to go against the model: our money is still on Knibb to produce the fastest bike split.

We can’t wait to watch it all unfold, and we’ll be reporting live from the ground in Nice. Now, place your bets!