We’re just two full days out from the Ironman World Championship in Kona, which inevitably raises the question: What will it take to win? And how might individual competitors, by playing to their unique strengths, realistically pull it off?
Let’s start with Lucy Charles-Barclay and her 2023 course-record victory as our benchmark. Not only did she win, but she led the race wire-to-wire, making her performance a useful model for analyzing how close to the front a contender needs to be at various stages of the race to remain in contention.
(Of course, as Ironman’s own slogan reminds us, “Anything is possible.” This is ultimately an exercise in data-based speculation, understanding full well that race day can sometimes deliver the seemingly impossible.)
Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR): The Benchmark and the Favourite
If there’s one thing we can confidently assume, it’s that Lucy Charles-Barclay is arriving in Kona this year in even better form than she was in 2023. In past interviews, she has shared that she feels she lost around five minutes on the marathon due to running with a torn calf. And injury aside, in our exclusive interview with Lucy just last month, she told us this is the first time she’s arriving on the Big Island with such a consistent, high-quality build behind her.
This is what makes Lucy dangerous, and the clear frontrunner in many’s eyes. It’s part of why Triathlon Magazine has picked her as our top bet to take the tape.
With that said, the women’s field is deeper and more competitive than ever, and several other contenders are coming in with the tools to challenge for the crown.
Laura Philipp (GER): The Chase-From-Behind Threat
Back to our methodology, we are using Kona 2023 splits as our starting point because it offers a comparison to Lucy on the same course and under the same conditions (noting that the conditions including heat and wind can vary significantly year to year). The weakness of this methodology is that it doesn’t account for athletes doing “well” or “poorly” relative to their respective abilities, but nevertheless, it gives us a starting point (to which we can add further commentary and analysis).
In 2023, Laura came out of the water in 25th place, seven minutes behind Lucy. Laura biked hard and managed to move up to third place by the time she exited T2. And she ultimately finished in third, eight minutes and 24 seconds behind Lucy.
What we can infer to start is that the swim will be absolutely critical for Laura in terms of positioning her in contention for the win. Her strength lies in her bike-run combo, but she needs to be close enough after the swim to make those strengths count. Historically, that’s been her biggest limiter in Kona.
In both 2022 and 2023, she trailed Lucy by roughly seven minutes coming out of the water. But there are signs of progress. At the 2024 Ironman World Championship in NIce, where she was crowned champion, Laura exited the water just 4:03 down (and about three and a half minutes behind Kat Matthews). And in Hamburg, she swam with the front group alongside Kat and Solveig Lovseth. (A quick note that Lucy wasn’t in any of these 2024 or 2025 races.)
While Laura isn’t considered a front-pack swimmer, these recent performances suggest she may be closing the gap compared to Kona 2022 and 2023. If she can limit her deficit to around four minutes – as she did in Nice – she’ll be firmly in the mix.
In Kona 2023, Lucy added another minute on Laura across the bike and run, but Laura has since taken her running to a new level, making Ironman history in Hamburg with the fastest-ever Ironman marathon.
So here’s the scenario: If Laura can stay within four to five minutes of the front in the swim, avoid losing time on the bike, and bring her Hamburg-level run form to Kona, she’ll be a serious threat to come charging through the field late in the day.
Kat Matthews (GBR): The All-Rounder with Unfinished Business
For Kat Matthews, the prediction is less straightforward given the absence of Kona-specific data. She was runner-up at the 2021 Ironman World Championship in St. George and again in Nice in 2024. Beyond that, she’s one of the most reliable performers in the sport – consistently at the pointy end – and even briefly held the Ironman world record earlier this year before Laura Philipp lowered the mark in Hamburg.
Kat isn’t necessarily the fastest swimmer, cyclist, or runner on paper. She likely won’t beat Lucy out of the water, Taylor on the bike, or outrun Laura at her best. But what makes Kat dangerous is her ability to stay consistently close across all three disciplines. Fueling her fire are two second-place finishes, and a season-long commitment to finally turning silver into gold.
For Kat Matthews, the path to victory in Kona is less about dominating one discipline and more about delivering elite consistency from start to finish. She is seasoned over the distance, unshakably steady, and unlikely to falter.
Taylor Knibb (USA): A Force No One Can Ignore
For Taylor, nothing needs to change from a swim-bike perspective. In 2023, Taylor came out of the water 1:23 behind Lucy, and rode at a similar pace to Lucy, finishing the 180km ride in second place. It was only during the later stages of the marathon that Taylor faltered – and importantly, this was her first ever Ironman (having qualified by virtue of being 70.3 World Champion).
While she hasn’t yet established herself as a dominant Ironman athlete in the way some of the long-course veterans have, Taylor has all the ingredients to be a serious disruptor.
Taylor shared that she had intentionally held back in Kona 2023, aware of the unknowns that come with racing 140.6 miles for the first time. That caution was understandable, but it also points to the potential for a ceiling that is considerably higher.
Taylor’s best shot at winning this year will come by exiting T2 in first, leveraging her trademark bike strength to build a buffer ahead of the run.
Stay tuned for Triathlon Magazine’s updates brought to you live from Kona as the Ironman World Championship unfolds!
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